Apple quarterly report: What’s the Apple stock forecast?
We’ve seen the latest Apple quarterly report, but what’s the Apple stock forecast?
- Apple quarterly report: The past three months
- What the experts think
- Apple quarterly report: Breaking records but still disappointing
- Apple and the markets
- Apple stock forecast
Apple's latest quarterly report brought both good and bad news for the tech giant and its investors.
On one hand, the company’s revenue of $83.4bn was a record and was up 29%, in line with both what the company itself had forecast and the Morgan Stanley prediction. On the other hand, this result was less than the $84.85bn predicted by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv, as CNBC reported, making it the first quarter since 2016 that Apple did not match that particular prediction.
What does this mean for the future of the Apple share price? Let us look at the stock’s recent history.
Apple quarterly report: The past three months
Over the past three months, there have been some changes, quite literally in store.
In September, US District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers ruled that the company should allow other people’s apps sold on its Apple Store to include links or information about making payments that bypass Apple. The judge found, in response to a case brought forward by Fortnite maker Epic Games, that Apple needed to allow developers to inform app users that they can make payments which bypass the Apple Store.
Apple currently takes somewhere between 15% and 30% of all store payments. If more apps bypass the tech giant, then that could end up costing the company as much as $18bn a year, which could have an impact on the AAPL stock forecast.
However, that loss could well end up being offset by the release of the new iPhone 13 on 24 September. While this was only just before the end of the quarter that is being reported on, Apple’s fans are nothing if not loyal, and there could well have been a significant boost in income as people rushed to get hold of the latest upgrade.
What the experts think
What are the experts saying could happen to the Apple quarterly results?
Nasdaq reported that the Apple quarter earnings per share (EPS) could be anywhere between $1.20 and $1.31, with the most likely figure being $1.24. If the consensus figure, reported by Zacks Investment Research, was correct, that would represent a year-on-year rise of just under 70%.
Forbes reported that Toni Sacconaghi at Bernstein suggests there could be a revenue growth of 63%, while Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley predicted a revenue growth of 29%. The company itself, back when the last set of quarterly results were issued in July, said it expected revenue to rise by a double digit figure, but less than the 36% recorded in the last quarter, which could be good news for the Apple share price.
Apple quarterly report: Breaking records but still disappointing
The company’s CEO, Tim Cook, said that the ongoing semiconductor shortage had had a big impact on how Apple had performed, and that things were set to continue to be bad.
He told a post-earnings conference call: “We had about $6bn in supply constraints, and it affected the iPhone, the iPad and the Mac. There were two causes of them for Q4. One was the chip shortages that you’ve heard a lot about from many different companies through the industry. And the second was Covid-related manufacturing disruptions in Southeast Asia.
"The second of those, the Covid disruptions, have improved materially across October to where we currently are. And so, for this quarter, we think that the primary cause of supply chain-related shortages will be the chip shortage. It is affecting pretty much most of our products currently but from a demand point of view, demand is very robust. And so, part of this is the demand also is very strong. But we believe that by the time we finish the quarter that the constraints will be larger than the $6bn that we experienced in Q4.”
iPhone revenues were up 47% year-on-year to $38.87bn, but that was considerably less than Refinitiv had predicted, which would have seen $41.51bn coming in. While Mac revenue was up 1.6% to $9.18bn, this also fell short of the $9.23bn predicted. With the latest Apple quarterly report released, let’s take a look and see what is happening to the company, and find out if there is an Apple stock forecast.
There was some potential positivity in Apple’s report, with the company expecting further growth in the next quarter despite supply issues. Cook said: “We are seeing high demands for our products and expect to achieve very solid year-over-year revenue growth and to set a new revenue record during the December quarter.”
Earnings per share hit the consensus estimates, coming in at $1.24.
Apple and the markets
It was the failure to quite hit targets that left the markets unimpressed. When trading stopped on 28 October, the AAPL share price was $152.57, but when the markets reopened on 29 October it had fallen by more than 3.5% to $147.20.
That said, there does need to be some kind of context for the results. If we go back 12 months, the Apple price was $112.37 when the markets opened. That means that the value of AAPL has risen by more than 30% over the course of the last year.
Apple stock forecast
When it comes to making an Apple stock forecast, the general mood seems to be pretty positive. When CNN Money asked 39 analysts for their 12-month Apple stock predictions, the median score was $170, up 11.5% from $152.57, where the Apple stock price was before the latest results were released.
In fact, the most optimistic Apple stock forecast for 2021 and 2022 was $198, which would see it go up by 29.9% over the course of the next year. There was, however, some cause for caution, with the most negative Apple stock price prediction for the next year seeing a drop of 41% to just $90.
In terms of what people should do with their Apple stock, the overwhelming consensus was for people to buy it. A total of 27 of 43 analysts surveyed by CNN Money said to buy, with five people saying it would outperform expectations and nine saying to hold on to the stock for the time being. It wasn’t all positive though, as one expert said that the stock would underperform against expectations and another suggested selling.
It might do. The forecasts are more positive than negative, but there is still room for caution. Remember that prices can go down as well as up, and that you should never invest more money than you can afford to lose.
Maybe. There has been a significant overall rise over the last 12 months, but the somewhat disappointing results will have had an impact on the price. You will need to do your own research and come up with the decision that is best for you.
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