Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis 24 Jan: Will it fall to $30,000?
Bitcoin (BTC) could rebound in the next few days, though the bears appear in command
Bitcoin’s price sliced through critical support levels with ease and declined to near $34,000 on 21 January. The selling is not limited to cryptocurrencies as the US stock markets also plunged last week. A large part of the selling has been triggered as traders anticipate the US Federal Reserve aggressively unwinding its economic stimulus to get a grip on surging inflation.
Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, in a note to clients, said: “The pessimism continues to grow among investors and traders when it comes to riskier assets and this is chiefly influencing the price of equities and bitcoin,” Market Watch reported.
Billionaire investor Mike Novogratz tweeted on 21 January that the Russell index has entered a bear market and added that “crypto will have a hard time rallying until stocks find a base.”
The sharp decline in bitcoin’s price is not giving sleepless nights to Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy. Saylor said in an interview with Bloomberg that investors should keep a four-year horizon if they want to invest in bitcoin for the short term. A medium-term time frame for bitcoin is ten years and MicroStrategy is in it “forever”. He denied any plans to sell his holding. Saylor said: “Never. No. We’re not sellers. We’re only acquiring and holding bitcoin, right? That’s our strategy.”
Will bitcoin go up and start a relief rally in the next few days or continue its downward move? Read our BTC price analysis to find out.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: weekly chart
The downsloping 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the relative strength index (RSI) below 37 indicate that bears are in command. If the bears sustain the price below $39,565.25, the pair could extend its decline to the strong support zone of $30,000 to $28,639.70.
The bulls are expected to defend this zone aggressively because if this support cracks, there may be a large amount of panic selling.
If the price rebounds off this zone, the first resistance to watch on the upside is $39,565.25. If the price turns down from this level, the pair may consolidate between $28,639.70 and $39,565.25 for a few weeks.
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The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-week EMA to signal that the correction may be ending. The bitcoin price analysis shows that bears are in command and a further fall to the support zone is likely.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: daily chart
BTC’s price attempted a pullback on 23 January but the bears are not willing to relent. They are attempting to resume the downward move today. If the price slips below $34,021.45, the next leg of the decline to $30,000 could begin.
Any attempt at recovery is likely to face strong selling in the zone between the 20-day EMA and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The bulls have not been able to overcome this barrier since the price broke below the 20-day EMA on 16 November 2021.
If the price turns down from this resistance zone, the bears will attempt to resume the downtrend.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 50-day SMA. Such a move will indicate that bears may be losing their grip.
Bitcoin: buy or sell at current levels?
The bitcoin price analysis shows that support levels are not holding. This suggests that traders are dumping their positions out of fear. The RSI has dipped into the oversold territory, indicating that the selling may have been overdone in the short term. This increases the possibility of a pullback or a consolidation within the next few days.
The views and opinions expressed in the article are those of the author and do not constitute trading advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risks and you should do your own research or contact your financial adviser before arriving at a decision.