Bitcoin price analysis 1 Nov: Is a rally to $75,000 likely?

Bitcoin could resume its uptrend shortly and set new records

Collection of gold Bitcoins                                 
Outlook remains positive and bulls may attempt to resume uptrend - Photo: Shutterstock

Bitcoin (BTC) notched its first-ever monthly closing price above the psychologically important level of $60,000 in October.

Although the monthly close was a tad below the worst-case scenario of $63,000 projected by PlanB, the creator of bitcoin stock-to-flow models, the analyst maintained his bullish outlook and said the “3% rounding error” was close enough for him. For November, the analyst’s worst-case close for bitcoin is a whopping $98,000.

Kraken Intelligence, in its latest Crypto On-Chain Digest, said that BTC’s HODL Waves, which shows the percentage of bitcoin’s circulating supply that hasn’t moved over a specific period, indicates that long-term holders have been accumulating bitcoin over the past five months. The report also highlights that the total number of young coins, that have been held for less than six months, has dropped to its lowest level since November 2018. A combination of these factors may have caused the supply shock pushing bitcoin prices higher.

CoinList CEO Graham Jenkin is bullish on bitcoin and anticipates it to hit $100,000 “toward the start of the year.” Will bitcoin go up and prove the bulls right or will it face headwinds and witness profit-booking? Let’s see what charts project. Read our BTC price analysis to find out.

Bitcoin price technical analysis: weekly chart

Bitcoin price technical analysis: weekly chart

BTC’s price formed a Doji candlestick pattern last week indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. The BTC/USD pair rose marginally by 0.81% to end the week at $61,344.10.

The pair has been consolidating near the all-time high for the past three weeks, which is a positive sign. This shows that traders are not hurrying to close their positions as they anticipate another leg higher.

Both moving averages are sloping up and the relative strength index (RSI) is just below the overbought zone, indicating the path of least resistance is to the upside.

If the price rises from the current level and breaks above the all-time high of $67,020, the pair could resume its uptrend. The next target objective on the upside is $75,000 and later $95,237.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below $57,503.60, the pair could drop to the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA). This is an important support for the bulls to defend because a break below it will indicate that the pair may have topped out in the short term.

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The bitcoin price analysis shows that the trend remains positive and the bulls may make one more attempt to resume the uptrend in the next few days.

Bitcoin price technical analysis: daily chart

Bitcoin price technical analysis: daily chart

BTC’s price dipped below the 20-day EMA on 27 October but the bears could not capitalise on this advantage. The bulls reclaimed the level on 28 October, indicating strong buying at lower levels. 

However, the recovery stalled at $62,989 on 29 October, suggesting that bears are not willing to give up without a fight. Both the bulls and the bears are currently battling it out at the 20-day EMA.

If the price breaks and sustains below $57,503.60, the selling could intensify as traders may rush to the exit. That could drag the pair to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

On the contrary, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above $63,741.95, the pair could retest the all-time high at $67,020. If the price turns down from this resistance, the range-bound action may continue for a few more days. 

But a break and close above the all-time high will indicate the start of the next leg of the uptrend.

Bitcoin buy or sell at current levels

Bitcoin price analysis shows that the bulls are defending the 20-day EMA, which suggests that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the all-time high of $67,020 to resume the uptrend. Until then, a range-bound action may ensue. The bears will gain the upper hand if the pair dips and closes below $57,503.60.

The views and opinions expressed in the article are those of the author and do not constitute trading advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risks and you should do your own research or contact your financial advisor before arriving at a decision. 

Trade Bitcoin to US Dollar - BTC/USD chart

Bitcoin to US Dollar
Daily change
Low: 27579.4
High: 28025.5

Further reading

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