BitMEX CEO sees BTC and ETH plunging by late June
Bitcoin and ether both correlate strongly with the Nasdaq 100, according to Hayes
BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes that the two leading cryptocurrenies, bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), will plunge by the end of the second quarter of 2022, in what he called “crypto carnage”.
According to Hayes, the combination of the Ukraine conflict and the hawkish stances of the Federal Reserve and several other central banks could be fatal to cryptoassets’ prices, while NATO sanctions on Russia could push emerging economies to add bitcoin to their reserves in the long term.
Hayes’ analysis is based on the grounds that crypto charts are following a similar pattern to traditional stocks, which are expected to retrace considerably as soon as the US Fed starts pumping liquidity into the markets to counter high levels of inflation.
“Bitcoin and ether are highly correlated to the Nasdaq 100. If the NDX tanks, it will take crypto down with it,” Hayes said in a recent Medium post.
“By the end of the second quarter in June of this year, I believe bitcoin and ether will have tested these levels, bitcoin: $30,000 and ether: $2,500.”
The growth of altcoins
Although he conceded his short-term prediction could be wrong, and claimed to be bullish on lead cryptos in the long term, Hayes said a possible drastic fall in the price of the digital gold and oil could lead investors to bet on altcoins – as he has been doing himself.
What is your sentiment on BTC/USD?
“There isn’t much science to these numbers other than a gut feeling. The annoying part is that there are some altcoins I have begun to accumulate because the prices are quite attractive,” he said.
“Even though some of these coins are already down 75% from their all-time high, I don’t believe even they can escape the coming crypto carnage. As such, I am buying crash June 2022 puts on both bitcoin and ether.
“Nothing is certain, I only ascribe probabilities to outcomes and trade accordingly. I fully believe there’s a chance my market prognosis might be wrong. That is fine, in that case, I only lose the option premium paid on my crash protection.
“I will be wrong if the correlation between bitcoin/ether and NDX starts dropping before a crash in risk asset markets. I’m perfectly okay with that outcome, as I’m already in a long crypto position. This analysis is purely an attempt to trade a short-term situation that I believe will transpire in risk markets and hedge purchases of attractively priced altcoins,” said Hayes.
ETH/USD price history
|Dec 3, 2022||1289.15||-6.45||-0.50%||1295.60||1305.90||1282.51|
|Dec 2, 2022||1295.60||18.97||1.49%||1276.63||1297.73||1265.56|
|Dec 1, 2022||1276.50||-17.98||-1.39%||1294.48||1300.02||1259.75|
|Nov 30, 2022||1294.69||78.80||6.48%||1215.89||1309.65||1212.03|
|Nov 29, 2022||1215.91||48.86||4.19%||1167.05||1226.68||1158.28|
|Nov 28, 2022||1167.04||-26.14||-2.19%||1193.18||1198.74||1150.50|
|Nov 27, 2022||1193.17||-11.82||-0.98%||1204.99||1222.69||1188.49|
|Nov 26, 2022||1205.03||6.69||0.56%||1198.34||1234.05||1195.61|
|Nov 25, 2022||1198.35||-4.23||-0.35%||1202.58||1205.94||1169.66|
|Nov 24, 2022||1202.65||19.28||1.63%||1183.37||1216.42||1179.39|
|Nov 23, 2022||1183.35||45.31||3.98%||1138.04||1189.36||1126.32|
|Nov 22, 2022||1138.11||32.43||2.93%||1105.68||1141.38||1073.75|
|Nov 21, 2022||1105.62||-35.14||-3.08%||1140.76||1145.01||1078.20|
|Nov 20, 2022||1140.64||-76.79||-6.31%||1217.43||1225.95||1131.03|
|Nov 19, 2022||1217.27||5.45||0.45%||1211.82||1232.54||1196.76|
|Nov 18, 2022||1211.92||11.79||0.98%||1200.13||1232.71||1198.39|
|Nov 17, 2022||1200.21||-15.57||-1.28%||1215.78||1227.61||1181.10|
|Nov 16, 2022||1215.76||-36.04||-2.88%||1251.80||1267.09||1185.10|
|Nov 15, 2022||1252.06||10.85||0.87%||1241.21||1289.18||1231.70|
|Nov 14, 2022||1241.22||21.60||1.77%||1219.62||1288.67||1169.14|