Ripple price analysis 11 Jan: Are lower levels likely?

Ripple (XRP) may remain weak in the short term

Ripple’s ongoing legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been a major roadblock in attracting new investors, because of uncertainty around the decision and the duration of the case.

Recently, Jeremy Hogan, a well-known XRP lawyer, was asked his honest opinion about when Ripple’s court case with the SEC would end. Hogan replied that the case could end by April 2022.

However, the SEC is not going to take it lying down and it has filed a letter of supplemental authority to strike Ripple’s “fair notice” defence. In response, Hogan said on Twitter that the case was at a different “stage of litigation and the standard is completely different than the SEC v. Ripple case.”

Will XRP go up in hopes of a faster resolution to the court case? Read the XRP price analysis to find out what the charts suggest.

Ripple weekly chart
Ripple weekly chart – Credit: Currency.com


Ripple technical analysis: weekly chart

XRP’s price continued to move down as it fell 12.25% to end last week at $0.75. The XRP/USD pair has reached the support line of the symmetrical triangle, which could act as a strong support.

Any rebound off the current level could face selling at the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA). If that happens, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

The moving averages have completed a bearish crossover and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative zone, indicating that bears are in control. If bears sink and sustain the price below the triangle, it will suggest that the sellers have overpowered the bulls. That could start a downtrend, with the next support at $0.51 and then $0.36.

This negative view will be invalidated if bulls drive and sustain XRP’s price above the 20-week EMA. The buyers will have to drive the price above the resistance line of the triangle to indicate the start of a new uptrend.

Ripple daily chart
Ripple daily chart – Credit: Currency.com


Ripple technical analysis: daily chart

XRP’s price has been clinging to the $0.74 support for the past few days. While the bulls have successfully defended the level, they have not been able to achieve a strong bounce off it. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.

The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

If bears pull and sustain the price below $0.74, selling could pick up momentum and the XRP/USD pair could drop to its 4 December low of $0.62. 

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sellers may be losing their grip. The pair could then rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) where the bears may again mount a strong resistance.

A break and close above the 50-day SMA could clear the path for a possible rally to the stiff overhead resistance at $1.02.

Ripple: buy or sell at current levels?

Ripple’s price analysis suggests that bears are in control and a drop below $0.74 is likely. If that happens, the pair could drop to the support line of the triangle, which is likely to act as a strong floor. On the upside, a break and close above the 50-day SMA will suggest that the selling pressure may be reducing.

Whatever the outcome might be, your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in this market, the spread of your investment portfolio and how comfortable you are about losing money. This analysis does not constitute investment advice. It’s important to make your own analysis before deciding to invest. You should never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Ripple to US Dollar
Daily change
0.75665
Low: 0.74918
High: 0.77616

Further reading:

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