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09/09/2021 - As seemingly always, there was no single reason for the market collapse. Rather, a series of events happening sequentially, culminating around the same day conspired against it.

On September 7, not only bitcoin declined, gold and silver sank quite suddenly too. This happened against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar index vs. the main reserve currencies [by 0.2%], as well as a slight increase in the yield of 10-year US government bonds. Did this directly affect crypto? It is difficult to say, but the fact remains that prices have fallen in these assets, which are historically used to hedge against inflation. It is likely that these price falls had some influence on the crypto market.

Generally in periods with strong price increase, especially on holiday weekends - indicating a heavy retail push upward which is coupled with bullish exuberance leading to increase in leverage - the larger ‘whales’ seem to heavily short the market, kicking off a cascade of liquidations. Anyone who trades this asset class understands that the market takes the stairs up and the elevator down.

But there were also other contributing factors - first, there was unrest in El Salvador regarding the legalisation of bitcoin as a means of payment. Secondly, the SEC’s attention on Coinbase and Uniswap Labs may have rattled confidence. Some may even believe that this event could be the precursor to another crypto-winter. However, we believe that this is unlikely to happen.

It is unlikely that the US will ensue the beginnings of a ‘crypto nightmare’ given that a lot of companies and a lot of investors will suffer, and a new panic in the markets is the least of their priorities right now.

At the same time, the SEC is acting more cautious and pointed. The US is relatively loyal to the crypto market and they have no real reasons for extending overly strict regulations on the market. Accordingly, we believe the current passions will subside and the market will return to growth again.

Will the collapse lead to the beginning of a long-term correction?

In our opinion, this collapse is likely to see bitcoin - for the next 2-3 weeks - trade in a sideways trend, in the range of $45 000 - $48 000. Retail investors are scared, of course, but large investors will continue to gradually buy bitcoin, which will lead the market to recovery and continued growth.

We do not think that we will not see a two-month sideways trend, as we did in the summer. It is possible that in the near-term BTC will actively move into growth again. There are a number of reasons for this - data on inflation in the US will be released on September 14, and on September 22 there will be a meeting of the US Federal Reserve and a decision on interest rates. While we think US rates are unlikely to be raised, there may be a statement regarding the tightening of monetary policy. Most likely, the statement will again be vague, which will push the markets to grow. In our opinion, the inflation rate will either increase or remain at the same level — 5.3 - 5.5%.

Can the price of bitcoin collapse to $30,000?

In our opinion this is unlikely. In the worst case, the price will fall to the area of $42,000, testing the support that was previously in place and preventing bitcoin from the 2-month sideways trend. Further ahead, yes, I believe that the price will return to growth again - potentially towards the end of September, or at the beginning of October.

The market is still bullish, not only the crypto market, but also on all the risk asset markets. The sentiment is likely to change only if something changes significantly in the monetary policy of the world's leading central banks. For example, if they set specific deadlines for curtailing emergency stimulus programmes, cut QE programmes, and so on. But we do not think we should expect that in 2021. The global economy is slowing down, and the pandemic, despite vaccinations, is taking its toll. Let us not forget inflation is far from ideal. There is talk of stagflation in Britain, the EU, and possibly the US. For these reasons alone, we believe that the growth of the crypto market and other risk assets will continue.

03/09/2021 - We believe that the correction is almost over - the drop to $47k gave investors ample opportunity to stock up on cheap bitcoins. The good old strategy to buy the dips works great in crypto. The market isn’t going to slow down anytime soon, since institutional investors keep increasing their BTC positions, and we are seeing many new entries. The fact that Tesla sold 10% of its bitcoins won’t scare these investors off. As for tech analysis data, we’ve seen the buyers hold off the selling pressure at $47-48k twice now, and the intermediate resistance of $54k has already been broken through.

Right now BTC needs to rise above $60k, which is the point where the impulsive sell-off started. Only then we’ll be able to say that the correction is truly over. A few days after it reaches $60k, we can expect to see $65k and higher. Until that time, you really can’t make any predictions.

16/07/2021 - "The SEC vs Ripple Labs Inc case and the decision to depose ex-SEC director, William Hinman, shows us just how influential the retail voice has become. Ruling in favour of the ‘public interest’ , the result is that Hinman can now be questioned in court. The ruling will enable Ripple Labs to question Hinman and determine his ‘personal views’ around Ethereum (ETH) and why he believes ETH is not a ‘security’. It’s going to be a very interesting deposition , which possibly unveils new facts about the case. While the deposition has not immediately impacted the price of ETH, we expect this outcome to affect Ethereum in the mid-to-longer term.”

30/04/2021- Between the period of 17th to 28th April, Ethereum (ETH) was among the top four most popular cryptocurrencies new clients began trading on Cryptocurrency exchange, Currency.com. The other three cryptocurrencies that were popular first markets to trade among clients were Bitcoin, Dogecoin and Ripple.

Vitality Kedyk, Head of Strategy at Currency.com, comments on the rise of the cryptomarket alt season.

“With BTC (Bitcoin) starting to lose its dominance and with more new altcoins beginning to emerge in the market based on the Ethereum blockchain, we are seeing the beginnings of the cryptomarket alt season and the growing demand for Ethereum (ETC).

We won't be surprised if volatility around Ethereum is much higher than BTC and there are a few reasons for this. The availability of ETC futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has increased institutional demand for ETH, pushing it further into the mainstream. As it stands, there are fewer derivatives on ETH than on BTC , which may suggest that there is room for further growth as more institutional investors join the fray and more derivatives for ETH become available. As the derivatives market for ETH grows, it’s likely to contribute to liquidity, provide wider risk-management tools and allow for more varied product options around ETH.

ETH looks like it is also benefiting from the Ethereum Blockchain, with new projects emerging everyday marking the gradual shift from bitcoins to altcoins. This may further influence the demand for Ethereum and increase its cost. In the near term, we don't see any obstacles preventing ETH from inching higher and possibly breaking past $3000.”

14/04/2021 - Coinbase is in a perfect storm right now. With equity and cryptocurrency markets rallying across the board, it couldn't have chosen a better time to list. Adding to the momentum are retail investors who joined the market in 2020, contributing further to interest in this IPO.

BTC ETFs are another indicator of interest in the industry and there should be huge inflows into bitcoin as a result. Assuming the SEC approves it, the ETFs will further drive up the Coinbase valuation.

This (listing) is definitely good for the industry in general. Crypto has moved from being an underdog to being a darling of financial markets. This listing along with the BTC ETFs will attract a lot of institutional money, fuelling the entire industry forward.

Now Coinbase will need to win the battle with decentralised exchanges (DEXes), which are rising as well. Centralised exchanges like Coinbase are in an interesting position. They are bringing awareness to the decentralised economy and acting as a gateway for the general public to enter this new and emerging space. So it will be interesting to see how Coinbase fares against DEXes going forward.