AMC price prediction: Is now a good time to buy?

Can the silver screen bounce back, or will shares hit the B-list?

Contents

Meme-stock beneficiary AMC Entertainment's (AMC) third-quarter results, published on Monday, showed a surge in sales buoyed by moviegoers’ large-scale return to the screens, with cinemas back to operating at 100% capacity.

An immensely turbulent year saw summer share sales explode on the back of a social media campaign aimed at punishing short-selling institutional investors. AMC was then able to sell inflated shares to keep the struggling NYSE-listed American cinema chain afloat. 

Following the meme-stock rally, shares hit a mid-year high of $72.62, in stark contrast to the $344m in losses reported in that quarter. This amounted to a mind-boggling 3,000% share price surge on the year’s opening, which then took an erratic dive to the low $40 mark where it hovers as of 9 November. 

With individuals now accounting for over 80% of AMC’s shareholder base, one would hope that additional bandwidth on the earnings webcast was accommodated. Regardless, what are the key talking points following the Q3 report and what do analysts have in store for AMC stock predictions in 2021 and the following year?

Read on to find out and be sure to view our AMC share price chart for the latest updates.

AMC price history

Date Close Change Change(%) Open High Low
Nov 29, 2022 7.05 -0.11 -1.54% 7.16 7.16 7.00
Nov 28, 2022 7.00 -0.24 -3.31% 7.24 7.35 7.00
Nov 25, 2022 7.40 -0.24 -3.14% 7.64 7.75 7.39
Nov 24, 2022 7.59 0.00 0.00% 7.59 7.59 7.54
Nov 23, 2022 7.59 0.45 6.30% 7.14 7.86 7.11
Nov 22, 2022 7.14 0.05 0.71% 7.09 7.39 6.97
Nov 21, 2022 7.09 -0.20 -2.74% 7.29 7.44 6.95
Nov 18, 2022 7.39 0.12 1.65% 7.27 7.72 7.20
Nov 17, 2022 7.20 0.06 0.84% 7.14 7.66 6.99
Nov 16, 2022 7.49 -0.27 -3.48% 7.76 8.10 7.05
Nov 15, 2022 7.75 0.53 7.34% 7.22 8.06 7.22
Nov 14, 2022 7.22 0.27 3.88% 6.95 8.22 6.95
Nov 11, 2022 7.00 1.00 16.67% 6.00 7.16 5.82
Nov 10, 2022 5.98 0.94 18.65% 5.04 6.17 5.02
Nov 9, 2022 5.07 -0.11 -2.12% 5.18 5.35 4.96
Nov 8, 2022 5.24 -0.06 -1.13% 5.30 5.81 5.16
Nov 7, 2022 5.28 -0.28 -5.04% 5.56 5.62 5.09
Nov 4, 2022 5.52 -0.14 -2.47% 5.66 5.78 5.34
Nov 3, 2022 5.61 -0.33 -5.56% 5.94 5.94 5.50
Nov 2, 2022 5.79 -0.43 -6.91% 6.22 6.25 5.70

State of play

Third-quarter statistics show reported per-share losses of $0.44. But that figure actually improved on the consensus AMC stock price prediction of $0.53. In comparison, total losses in 2020 amounted to $39.15 per share. 

At face value that may sound like an incredible rebound, before you take into account shareholder dilution. In an amusing statistic, meme-stock activists in Q2 snapped up three times as many shares as AMC sold movie tickets.

Adam Aron, AMC’s chief executive officer and chair, made scant mention of this shareholder buying bonanza, aside from a brief nod to the “thousands of our individual shareholders” likely in attendance, instead focussing on positive patronage numbers.

In terms of bums on seats and associated snackbar sales (which currently bring in an average of $7.41 per patron against an average $10.98 ticket price), numbers are certainly rising.

The blockbuster drawing power of Dennis Villeneuve’s "Dune", Tom Hardy-starring "Venom: Let There Be Carnage" and Daniel Craig’s Bond swansong "No Time Time Die" brought global attendance count in the third quarter to 40 million people, nearly double Q2’s 22 million guests and close to six times the Q1 total.

But these figures will need to climb a lot more before reaching pre-pandemic levels: that 40 million is still only 46% compared to 2019 levels. Adjusted-EBITDA losses are still being reported, albeit to a better-than-expected sum of -$5m over the three-month period.

“The numbers clearly show our recovery trajectory,” said Sean Goodman, chief financial officer.

Spoiler alert: What is next for AMC?

Are AMC’s future prospects really so bad? Goodman predicted: “We currently believe that our adjusted EBITDA and our operating cash burn is likely to turn positive in the fourth quarter.” However: “While we are buoyed by our Q3 results and the momentum going into the fourth quarter, we do recognise that there is much work still to be done.”

Individual activists have armed AMC with a $1.8bn liquidity warchest. And there are other weapons in the arsenal. From 2022, the company aims to diversify its revenue streams through its AMC Theatres Perfectly Popcorn brand, set to be sold in malls, supermarkets and also via a delivery service.

AMC also plans to enter the crypto and non-fungible token (NFT) scenes. On top of announcing plans to accept payments via Bitcoin and potential other cryptocurrencies, there are ongoing discussions regarding the possibility of launching a unique AMC token.

Regarding NFTs, Aron said: “I can confirm to you today that we are now in conversation with multiple major Hollywood studios about the concept of joint venture commemorative NFTs related to major film titles that show in our theatres.” This could raise serious cash for the chain, given the current explosion the digital art movement is going through.

Diversified revenue streams are seen as a survival mechanism as much as an opportunity. With ongoing pandemic worries and the culture shift to home streaming, anxieties still abound for cinema chains.

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Is the chair jumping ship?

Should potential investors be wary of Aron’s recent estate-planning activities? Following his July election to the chair, Aron announced a new policy requiring all executives to hold certain shares tied to multiples of executives’ annual salary. For Aron that meant $12m or eight years of paycheques.

However, Aron recently outlined his intentions to partially sell off his stake and relinquish stock trading control to a third party, namely JP Morgan Chase.

Timing of this announcement (which was completely voluntary and not required by law) will likely raise suspicion, given the mixed-at-best AMC stock price prediction for 2022, although his stake in AMC still remains substantial.

“I can only imagine that naysayers and others who wish AMC harm will try to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt in this regard. But here's what they probably won't tell you. Even after this brief wave of selling comes to an end, I, Adam Aron, still will have well more than 2 million, 2 million fully owned or granted AMC shares in my name.”

It should also be mentioned that during AMCs meme-stock rally, he held onto his entire stake, but questions of confidence at the executive level will undoubtedly persist.

What are the analysts saying?

Off the bat, majority consensus of polled analysts across CNN, Financial Times and others cast a negative light on future AMC share price predictions.

CNN’s seven analysts place a high AMC price prediction of $16 and a low of $1 for a median of $5. These figures represent a grim 87.48% decrease as of 9 November. Unsurprisingly, two-thirds of nine polled analysts recommend selling now, although the rest suggest holding for the moment.

The sales forecast for the whole of 2022 ranges from $4.1bn to $5bn for a consensus of $4.7bn; $1.7bn up from the current 2021 forecast but still considerably behind pre-pandemic reported totals of $5.6bn.   

The Financial Times’ AMC prediction runs parallel to CNN’s, offering the same high, low and median figures, thus unsurprisingly expressing zero buy sentiment. Projected per-share losses for the next Q1 stand at $0.37.

Polling eight experts, the FT estimates $1.1bn in the next quarter, decreasing to $953.96 in the first quarter of 2022. For the whole of 2022, analysts predict a total of $4.64bn in total revenues.

Leoprophet’s AMC stock price predictions for 2025 average $74.79.

Do be aware that long-term predictions are highly volatile and subject to many factors.

What does it all mean?

It continues to be a year of crazy numbers for the cinema chain, putting the AMC price prediction into a spin. Record net losses, a massive shareholder dilution owing to a meme-stock rally and mixed news in terms of patronage combine to make a confusing landscape.

But in basic terms, experts largely agree that investors should be very careful when it comes to buying stock. The AMC stock price prediction among experts for the following 12 months implies a high possibility for negative returns.

There are many different factors that could spell disaster for potential investors. On the flip side, ticket sales are rising and the chain’s plans for diversified revenue streams may yet pay off.

If this year has taught us anything, it’s that you never know what to expect. Did AMC expect the question “can you guys make the AMC mascot officially a gorilla?” in a recent earnings webcast? Probably not. The AMC price prediction touted by experts isn’t amazing, but there could be more cliffhangers in store.

FAQs

Is AMC a good stock to buy now?

Industry analysts aren’t exactly rolling the red carpet out with the AMC prediction. Net losses are still being reported, although patronage numbers are rising and AMC plans to diversify its revenue streams in the year ahead. Buying now is a gamble that has the potential to pay off, but there are many factors to take into account.

Will AMC stock go up?

As reported by analysts and CNN and FT, the AMC price prediction over the following 12 months shows a negative trend. That said, the AMC stock price prediction for 2025 shows potential gains to be made. As always, please conduct extensive research and weigh the positives with the negative before making an investment.

Should I buy AMC stock?

Although AMC has had a tough year, there may be some potential for it to rebound. That said, you need to do your own research, remember that prices can go down as well as up, and you should never invest more money than you can afford to lose.

Further reading

The material provided on this website is for information purposes only and should not be regarded as investment research or investment advice. Any opinion that may be provided on this page is a subjective point of view of the author and does not constitute a recommendation by Currency Com Bel LLC or its partners. We do not make any endorsements or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the information that is provided on this page. By relying on the information on this page, you acknowledge that you are acting knowingly and independently and that you accept all the risks involved.
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