Bitcoin price prediction for 2030: Where will it be?

What are the latest bitcoin price predictions for 2030? Some believe this cryptocurrency could end up being worth seven figures, but others are not so sure

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Contents

• Bitcoin price predictions: the stock-to-flow model
• What the public think
• Bitcoin prediction for 2030: less volatility?
• FAQs

Attempting a bitcoin price prediction for 2030 is not necessarily a smart thing to do. It can be difficult to estimate what this cryptocurrency will be worth next week, let alone in nine years’ time. Many heavyweights in this industry, Mike Novogratz being one of them, have repeatedly made yearly predictions that ended up being wide of the mark.

There are some who argue that it is possible to get an idea of the bitcoin price in 10 years. They point to how bitcoin (BTC) has tended to follow a four-year cycle that delivers explosive gains in the 12 to 18 months after a halving. However, they are often less keen to mention the bear cycle that usually follows, which shaved a substantial amount off bitcoin’s value in 2018.

Something to remember when it comes to the bitcoin price in 2030 is that, in theory, this could be a year when bears dominate. In 2014, two years after the very first halving, BTC lost 37.4% of its value in Q1, 39.7% in Q3 and another 16.7 % in Q4, making a cumulative loss for the second half of the year of almost 50%. A similar theme was seen four years later in 2018 – down 49.7% in Q1, 7.7% in Q2, and 42.2% in Q4.

If bitcoin predictions are based on what’s happened in the past (which, of course, is not a reliable indicator of what lies ahead), we could see sizable corrections for BTC in 2022, 2026 and 2030.

Here we look at some of the main bitcoin price predictions for 2030, with a long-term forecast that examines the milestones we could see in the 2020s.

Bitcoin price predictions: the stock-to-flow model

Inevitably, a good place to start with bitcoin price predictions is with the stock-to-flow model produced by pseudonymous trader PlanB. Although it’s caused controversy in crypto circles, the model’s also won plaudits, with Forbes calling it “remarkably accurate”.

The premise is simple. Every four years, the number of new bitcoin entering into circulation is slashed by 50%. At present, just 6.25 BTC are mined every 10 minutes, the equivalent of about 900 BTC a day. This will fall to 3.125 BTC in 2024 and 1.5625 BTC by 2028. As ever, the theory is that reduced supply causes prices to rise if demand remains high.

Given that just 21 million bitcoin will ever exist, and with long-term crypto investors and institutions holding on to their digital assets for years, only a small proportion of total supply is liquid, forcing newcomers or enthusiasts to pay a premium to get their hands on some. Based on this model, bitcoin is expected to hit the $900,000 mark at some point in 2025. Analyst Scott Melker claims that an average price of $280,000 could be achieved as early as this year. Of course, not everyone agrees. For instance, NASDAQ says the price could “approach” $100,000 this year, while gov.capital is predicting $60,779.86 on 31 December 2021.

The other thing to note is the hits taken by Bitcoin and the greater cryptomarket in 2021. Both the Chinese government’s lockdown on cryptocurrencies and Tesla saying it would no longer accept bitcoin as payment, citing concerns over the environmental impact of the large amounts of power used during the currency’s mining, damaged it hard. Both factors should be taken into account when making bitcoin price predictions.

What the public think

Of course, analysts can loudly declare their views on bitcoin’s price in 2030 until they are blue in the face. But arguably, the opinions that really matter are from the investors, as their thinking could dictate how the market moves as we enter into a new decade.

A poll by Genesis Mining in December 2020 gave us a little insight into what common bitcoin price predictions for 2030 look like. It found that 65.8% of respondents were bullish for the long-term future of this digital asset, and 66.2% believed BTC was a better long-term investment than the dollar.

However, there is a real divided picture when respondents are asked how much a bitcoin will be worth in 2030. Just 4.8% believed that it had the potential to be worth more than $500,000, while 5.5% set a range of between $100,000 and $50,000 – just 18.6% forecast that BTC’s valuation will exceed $50,000. Contrast that with the 21.8% who think the price will tumble below $5,000.

It’s worth noting that this poll was performed at the very beginning of bitcoin’s explosive bull run, and the cryptocurrency was trading at about $19,000 when it was released. If the same respondents had been polled when the currency hit its all-time high of around $65,000 in the middle of April 2021, it’s highly possible that attitudes would have been very different. 

Bitcoin prediction for 2030: less volatility?

Another school of thought says the coin will become less volatile over time. Raoul Pal, the founder of on-demand financial TV channel Real Vision, is among those who believe that we will see far less dramatic swings in bitcoin’s value as 2030 nears. That said, he does not believe that BTC will be stable enough to be used for everyday purchases.

Others believe that one billion people will end up owning bitcoin by 2030, although this means that most of them will only be able to own a tiny fraction of this cryptocurrency. That’s a problem because miners need encouragement to keep the network running smoothly. But with BTC rewards dwindling to such a tiny level, they’ll need to be incentivised in the form of transaction fees, which could end up surging.

Although there’s a long-term belief among some that bitcoin could end up exceeding the market cap of gold, few bitcoin price predictions in 2030 anticipate that this leading digital asset will have overtaken fiat.

That said, a lot can change in 10 years. A decade ago, bitcoin was worth a mere $1. In the 2020s, we are likely to see countries around the world launch their own central bank digital currencies. There may also be a concerted push to regulate bitcoin. It’s also possible that a shiny new digital asset could steal BTC’s thunder and become the premier cryptocurrency in its place. Indeed, when Ethereum 2.0 finally comes out, ether (ETH) could become a true rival to BTC.

The next decade is going to be full of fascinating twists and turns. Predictions can certainly be interesting to read, but it would take a fool to bet money on where bitcoin will stand in nine years’ time.

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Further reading

Bitcoin halvings: nine common questions, answered simply

Ethereum price predictions: what will ETH be worth?