ETH technical analysis 4 October: has the uptrend resumed?

Ether could pick up momentum above $3,500

An ethereum token set against a backdrop of a rising graph                                 
Has etherereum's uptrend resumed? Photo: Shutterstock
                                

Ether plunged by more than 12% in September, the second-biggest monthly fall in the past year. A  positive sign, however, is that the rebound in the first few days of October has been strong – indicating that investors may have accumulated at lower levels.

Polygon co-founder Sandeep Nailwal, in an interview with Cointelegraph, said: “Sooner or later, ETH will outpace bitcoin and become the global standard.”

In its September edition of the crypto on-chain digest, dubbed End of Summer Sale, Kraken Intelligence noted that ether miners have hoarded about two million ether since the London hard fork on 5 August.

This pushed their holdings to an all-time high of 22.3 million ether as of 21 September, which is almost a fifth of the cryptos total supply. 

The report speculates that the accumulation could have picked up after the fork as miners “expected the upgrade’s disinflationary effects to increase the price.”

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s detractors continue to point to the slow speed of the network and high transaction fees. This has led to a sharp rally in rival blockchains such as Solana and Terra’s luna, which have surged 25% and 23% respectively and have been dubbed Ethereum killers.

Auston Bunsen, co-founder of QuikNode, which provides blockchain infrastructure to developers and companies, said: “I think some of those Ethereum killers will make it, but they won’t kill Ethereum,” according to CNBC.

Has ether bottomed out and will it continue its uptrend in October or will higher levels attract selling by bears? Read ether’s price-trend analysis to find out.

Ether price technical analysis: weekly chart

Ether price technical analysis: weekly chart
Ether price technical analysis: weekly chart Credit: Currency.com

Ether’s price slipped below the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the second successive weekl, but the positive sign is that bulls bought the dip aggressively. The ETH/USD pair bounced sharply to end last week at $3,419.44, with gains of 11.72% over the previous week’s closing price.

The rising moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) indicate that bulls are in control. The buyers will now try to push the price to the overhead resistance zone at $4,000 to $4,381.71 where the bears are likely to pose a stiff challenge.

If the price turns down from this zone, the pair may drop to the 20-week EMA and remain range-bound between these two levels for a few weeks. A break and close below the 20-week EMA will be the first sign that bears are back in the game.  


Ether price technical analysis: daily chart

 Ether price technical analysis: daily chart
Ether price technical analysis: daily chart – Credit: Currency.com

Ether’s price broke above the resistance line of the descending channel pattern and the moving averages on 1 October. This is the first sign that the correction could be over.

The bears are attempting to defend $3,500 but the bulls are not relenting. The buyers are trying to sustain the price above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). If the support holds, it is likely to act as a launchpad for the next leg of the up-move.

A break and close above $3,500 could push the pair to $3,677.55 and then to the critical overhead resistance at $4,000. 

Contrary to this assumption, if the price slips below the moving averages, it will suggest that demand dries up at higher levels. The bears will then try to latch on the opportunity and pull the price back into the channel.

ETH price technical analysis: trading this week

Ether is facing stiff resistance near $3,500, indicating that bears have not given up and are selling at higher levels. The bulls will have to sustain the price above $3,175 or the pair could give back a large part of its recent gains. On the upside, a break above $3,500 could signal strength and clear the path for a possible move to $4,000.

The views and opinions expressed in the article are those of the author and do not constitute trading advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risks and you should do your own research or contact your financial adviser before arriving at a decision.

ETH/USD price history

Date Close Change Change(%) Open High Low
Oct 25, 2021 4136.75 54.62 1.34% 4082.13 4156.67 4068.24
Oct 24, 2021 4082.29 -85.16 -2.04% 4167.45 4186.95 3960.47
Oct 23, 2021 4167.97 196.12 4.94% 3971.85 4173.13 3937.03
Oct 22, 2021 3971.59 -81.99 -2.02% 4053.58 4171.38 3888.38
Oct 21, 2021 4053.67 -108.58 -2.61% 4162.25 4375.04 4007.53
Oct 20, 2021 4162.61 287.38 7.42% 3875.23 4169.99 3827.67
Oct 19, 2021 3875.22 131.12 3.50% 3744.10 3888.96 3730.71
Oct 18, 2021 3744.11 -104.12 -2.71% 3848.23 3896.09 3675.19
Oct 17, 2021 3848.29 19.45 0.51% 3828.84 3919.64 3701.94
Oct 16, 2021 3829.33 -40.32 -1.04% 3869.65 3969.17 3802.55
Oct 15, 2021 3869.49 78.21 2.06% 3791.28 3904.60 3733.39
Oct 14, 2021 3791.15 182.49 5.06% 3608.66 3829.32 3588.65
Oct 13, 2021 3608.43 119.36 3.42% 3489.07 3613.80 3411.06
Oct 12, 2021 3489.44 -53.27 -1.50% 3542.71 3549.94 3402.83
Oct 11, 2021 3542.79 127.60 3.74% 3415.19 3624.29 3370.68
Oct 10, 2021 3415.22 -160.50 -4.49% 3575.72 3605.67 3396.71
Oct 9, 2021 3575.71 11.40 0.32% 3564.31 3635.68 3537.86
Oct 8, 2021 3564.20 -24.85 -0.69% 3589.05 3672.47 3531.89
Oct 7, 2021 3589.15 12.44 0.35% 3576.71 3656.41 3470.43
Oct 6, 2021 3576.54 58.68 1.67% 3517.86 3633.33 3341.85

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