Ether price analysis: Could 2023 start a bull move?

• Updated

Ether may remain range-bound in the near term

Ethereum coins                                 
Investors’ focus is likely to shift to ethereum’s upcoming hard forks in 2023 – Photo: Shutterstock
                                

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Ethereum (ETH) completed its much-awaited switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake on 22 September 2022, an event called the Merge, which reduced the network’s energy consumption by 99.95%, according to developers. The upgrade happened without any major hiccups, but ether’s price could not avoid the crypto winter, and it  more than 67% in 2022. Ether remains weak and the bears are trying to sustain the price below $1,200 as of 30 December 2022.

In the new year, investors’ focus is likely to shift to ethereum’s upcoming hard forks. The first upgrade, dubbed Shanghai, is expected to happen by March 2023. Shanghai will include Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 4895, which will allow withdrawals of staked ether from the beacon chain. In addition, several more EIPs dealing with the upgrade of the Ethereum Virtual Machine will also be a part of the Shanghai hard fork. 

The second upgrade, EIP 4844, known as the Surge, is expected during the fall of 2023 and aims to make ethereum more scalable through sharding. The goal is to achieve 100,000 transactions per second and beyond through rollups.

JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note in early December: "We continue to see the Ethereum Surge as a catalyst for development in the cryptocurrency markets, which appears at least 6-12 months away," Reuters reported.

Steven Goulden, a senior research analyst at the crypto trading firm Cumberland, said in a recent report that bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum may be added as reserve assets by nations focused on exports. Goulden added: “Even a small central bank allocation to BTC or ETH would be material.”

Could ether go up due to buying by long-term investors in anticipation of future upgrades? Read the ETH price analysis to find out.

Ether price technical analysis: Weekly chart

Ether weekly price analysis chart for 30 December 2022
Ether weekly price analysis chart for 30 December 2022 – Credit: Currency.com

ETH’s price has been trading between $1,070 on the downside and the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) on the upside. This shows that the bulls are buying the dips but the bears continue to sell on rallies.

The downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in negative territory indicate advantage to bears.

If the price breaks below $1,070, the sellers will try to pull the ETH/USD pair to the June low at 878. The bulls are expected to defend the zone between $1,000 and $878 with all their might because a break below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $682.

On the upside, a break and close above the 20-week EMA could be the first sign that the bears may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to the psychological level of $2,000 where the bears may again mount a strong resistance. A break above this level could suggest a potential trend change.

Ether price technical analysis: Daily chart

Ether daily price analysis chart for 30 December 2022
Ether daily price analysis chart for 30 Decemmber 2022 – Credit: Currency.com

Ether’s price has been stuck between $1,350 and $1,070 for the past few days. The 20-day EMA is flattish and the RSI is below 44, indicating a minor advantage to sellers. The bears will try to pull the price toward $1,070.

When the price is range-bound, traders usually buy at the support and sell near the resistance. Therefore, buyers are likely to protect the $1,070 level with vigour. If the price rebounds off this level, the pair may extend its consolidation for a few more days.

Another possibility is that the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could attempt a rally to $1,350, where the bulls may again hit a roadblock.

Ether: Buy or sell this week?

Ether has been oscillating between $1,070 and $1,350 for some time. Ether’s price analysis suggests that the pair may drift down to the support of the range in the near term. This negative view could invalidate in the near term if bulls drive the price above the moving averages. The pair could thereafter rally to $1,350.

The views and opinions expressed in the article are those of the author and do not constitute trading advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risks and you should do your own research or contact your financial adviser before arriving at a decision.

Further reading

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