Global bitcoin adoption level to surpass 10% by 2030
Blockware Intelligence report suggests bitcoin could be adopted more quickly than cars
The global bitcoin (BTC) adoption rate is predicted to surpass 10% of the world’s population level by 2030 as the lead crypto will reach a market saturation level quicker than other disruptive technologies.
This is according to a report by Blockware Intelligence, the research arm of Bitcoin mining and blockchain infrastructure company Blockware Solutions.
Using a specific metric – called the cumulative sum of net entities growth – and noting BTC's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60%, Blockware Intelligence forecasts that “global bitcoin adoption will break past 10% in the year 2030”.
However, in comparison with the adoption of past technologies, such as automobiles and electric power, bitcoin adoption could move quicker. This is, suggests the report, because the “speed of adoption has continued to accelerate over time” and BTC provides a direct monetary incentives to those who adopt it – making bitcoin "unique" compared with previous technological advances.
The S-curve rate of adoption
The report goes on to explain how disruptive technologies follow a similar, exponential S-curve pattern in their adoption – starting flat as innovators and early adopters champion a technology at first before it begins to rise sharply with the early adopter and late adopter stages, until it finally flatens out again as technological laggards finally invest in the product.
‘All models are wrong’
Noting the observation by British statistician George Box that "all models are wrong, but some models are useful", the report concludes that its analysis “is not meant to serve as a scientific short-term trading tool, but rather a conceptual guide for long-term bitcoin investors”.
“With that being said, the general trend is clear; there is a high probability that bitcoin’s global adoption will grow significantly into the future and thus so will price,” added the report.
Blockware Intelligence intends to keep updating its model every six months with new data.