NVAX stock forecast: why 2022 is shaping up to be a big year

• Updated

Despite its share price falling 47% in a month, the Novavax stock forecast is upbeat

The Novavax stock forecast was unpredictable throughout 2021, with the company’s share price fluctuating wildly as it slowly brings a coronavirus vaccine to market.

Novavax’s stock price started 2021 at $112.98 after surging an astounding 2,444% over the previous 12 months.

There was even more room to run. By 8 February, the stock had hit an all-time high of $331.68 – a rise of 193% in under six weeks, taking the company’s share price to levels not seen since 2002.

Unfortunately, the mania surrounding the NVAX stock forecast evaporated. It took a little over three weeks for Novavax to lose 52%, slumping as low as $158.10.

Temporary price recovery

In summer, prices went beyond $200 again for several weeks, topping out at $270.58 on 7 September, before a 47% decline that started in late October. Results issued on 4 November weren’t enough to return to highs seen earlier in the year.

The market has not shown much confidence in Novavax since the omicron variant burst onto the scene in late November, despite the company trying to soothe investors’ fears. It told investors in early December that it is testing its existing vaccine against the variant at the same time as creating an omicron-specific formula.   

So what has been causing all this volatility in Novavax’s stock price? Do the mass sell-offs suggest the company’s vaccine isn’t going to grab substantial market share, or was this more of a case of impatience among traders?

Here we’re going to bring you up to date on the latest NVAX stock forecast and ask if Novavax is a good stock to buy. 

Novavax stock predictions: Gaining approvals

Although Novavax was behind the curve when it comes to getting a vaccine approved by medicine regulators, time is still on its side.

The Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccines were the main ones approved in the EU, with the UK additionally giving the green light to Moderna’s jab. Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot vaccine also got emergency authorisation in the US.

A year after the global vaccine race began, Novavax has emergency-use authorisation for its protein-based product in Indonesia in partnership with the Serum Institute of India.

It awaits decisions from the UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, EU, India, the Philippines and the World Health Organisation and is expected to finally submit the full regulatory application to the US Food and Drug Administration by the end of 2021. On 13 December, the United Arab Emirates also granted emergency-use authorisation.

100 million monthly doses

Novavax reached 100 million monthly doses by the end of Q3, with a goal to produce 150 million a month by end of the fiscal year. The company boasts its vaccine has a 90% or better efficacy rate and is easily transported and stored because it is stable between 2ºC and 8ºC, whereas Pfizer’s jab requires deep-freezing.

Ultimately, Novavax anticipates global capacity of two billion doses in 2022. Its agreements include 1.1 billion doses for the GAVI/COVAX facility to service low-income countries and 110 million doses to the US government as part of a $1.8bn funding deal.

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It doesn't end there. It has committed up to 400 million doses to five national governments and the EU, plus licensing agreements in South Korea, India and Japan.

Network of contractors

Novavax has a network of contractors and company-owned facilities ready to reach that goal, including the world’s largest jab maker, India’s Serum Institute. It also has wholly-owned sites in the Czech Republic and Sweden, SK Bioscience in South Korea and Takeda in Japan, plus Biofabri in Spain, FujiFilm in the US and UK, Mabion in Poland and the National Research Council's Biologics Manufacturing Center in Canada.

How does it look financially? At the end of the third quarter, Novavax reported $179m revenue, $22m better year on year, and a strong cash position with $1.9bn in hand. That compares with $800m at the end of 2020. The revenue increase was mainly due to the Covid-19 vaccine development, which is also why research and development costs shot up from $294m to $408m.

On the bottom line, a net $322m loss, or $4.31 per share, compared with a loss in Q3 2020 of $197.3m, or $3.21 per share.

The UK government ordered 60 million doses, made-in-Northeast England, and it is poised to become the fourth jab in the UK’s pandemic arsenal – albeit many months late. Professor Paul Heath, head of the Novavax trial in the UK, had hoped it would have been approved by April 2021.

Novavax stock: Buy or sell?

So… is NVAX a good buy?

Well, 2022 is shaping up to be a significant year for Novavax, on the brink of having its jab used by hundreds of millions.

It has a two-for-one treatment up its sleeve that could prove revolutionary in the fight against both Covid-19 and seasonal flu. It expects data in the first half of 2022 about the development of its Covid-NanoFlu combination vaccine.

“We believe our Covid-NanoFlu combination vaccine will be a key component of our pipeline, and we look forward to advancing this candidate through clinical development,” said Novavax CEO Stanley Erck during the Q3 earnings call.

Trade Novavax – NVAX stock price

Novavax, Inc.
Daily change
Low: 45.4
High: 45.75

NVAX stock price predictions are shaping up to be rather positive right now. According to CNN Business, five analysts set the median price by the end of 2022 at $282, but it could reach as high as $305. The $172 low is an 11.7% decline from the 17 December trading price of $194.90.

Crucially, four of the six investment analysts who track the stock have a buy rating in place, while two say hold.

Novavax faces a waiting game in the US and UK. It seems highly likely that the company’s share price will be hugely receptive to confirmation that these jabs can be used as the roll-out continues in 2022.

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